[Helmholtz Watson]

ECB interest rates on the main refinancing operations…

[article]1410[/article]

[Helmholtz Watson]

Draghi opening statement:

Headlines:

ECB decision aimed at lifting inflation
Underlying inflation is expected to increase over the medium term
Underlying inflation remains muted
Some idiosyncratic factors hurting growth are starting to fade
Incoming data have continued to be weak, particularly in manufacturing
Other factors will extend through the year
Protectionism and political tensions are weighing on sentiment
Governing Council stands ready to adjust all instruments as appropriate
Slowdown is largely due to slower external demand but also country-specific factors
Risks to economic outlook still tilted to the downside
Inflation to decline towards the end of the year
Labor-cost pressures have strengthened and broadened

[Helmholtz Watson]

[color=red][b]ECB Cuts Growth Forecasts Significantly
[/b][/color]
2019 GDP at 1.1% vs 1.7% in January forecast
2020 GDP 1.6% vs 1.7% prior
2021 GDP 1.5% vs 1.5% prior

Inflation:
2019 1.2% vs 1.6% prior
2020 1.5% vs 1.7% prior
2021 1.6% vs 1.8% prior

[Helmholtz Watson]

[b]Draghi Q&A:
[/b]
There no discussion about restarting QE or cutting deposit rate
TLTRO loans are only somewhat more favorable than the market
ECB will announce full details of TLTRO in due time

In the coming years we will have a congestion of bank funding
We made four sets of decisions
We moved the calendar-based guidance to December from Sept
New measures are adding accommodation
ECB monetary policy is even more accommodative now

Decisions were made following large downward revisions in forecasts
Decisions were unanimous, which I think is a very positive sign of our cohesiveness
We are in a period of continued weakness

Chances of eurozone recession are very low
Chances of inflation deanchoring is very low

External factors continue to weigh on economy
ECB discussed changing forward guidance to March 2020

[Truman]

Bloomberg reporting on TLTRO

ECB said to be leaning to TLTRO rate at premium over benchmark
Some ECB officials are said to doubt 2019 outlook was lowered enough
ECB said not to rush for TLTRO details as soon as April

[KnovaWave]

Euro continues lower to 1.1180 $EURUSD after ECB Announces New #TLTRO Broke 1.1240 and 1.1280

Supports Nearly full #MurreyMath +3/8 to -3/8 Fractal

[ClemSnide]

Germany economy minister Altmaier

Europe wants to avoid trade war with US
Negotiations should lead to lower tariffs
Europe is ready to respond to higher US tariffs with own measures

[TradersCom]

Eurozone Flash PMI falls to 51.3 (51.9 – Feb), manufacturing primary drag – data pointing to steepest downtown in sector for 6 yrs.

Q1 survey data indicates GDP rose 0.2%

Key findings:

▪ Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index(1)
at 51.3 (51.9 in February). 2-month low.
▪ Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 52.7 (52.8 in February). 2-month low.
▪ Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 47.7 (49.4 in February). 71-month low.
▪ Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 47.6 (49.3 in February). 71-month low.

[Author]

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