Draghi Rat Trap Works Again Euro Reverses Sharply Lower on Inflation

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    ECB President Draghi caught a hawkish looking Euro…



    He does do a great job of setting up the algos and those tryin g to push against his wishes


    More ECB – from Benoît Cœuré of France

    Growth is strong, well distributed, and inclusive, for the first time in a very long time
    ECB models show that current growth of about 2.5% but of that is 0.5% dependent on ECB

    We are not quite where we would like to be from the point of view of inflation

    Confidence is growing but we can not yet claim victory
    ECB has never discussed a rate increase in mid-2019

    Helmholtz Watson

    ECB’s Praet maintains the dovish line from ECB Watchers conference earlier this week,

    Praet speaking to Reuters saidt ‘inflation may be on a shallower path because of slack’. Praet though does not seem to have an issue with the market pricing a first hike in Q2 2019 and the end of zero rates by end-19.

    QE should continue until December 2018 and then the question is whether the first 20bp hike will be in March (hawks) or June (doves). At the moment it looks like the doves have more leverage.

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