Corn Futures Adjusting to Production Downgrades from Europe and Argentina

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    *USDA September US Corn 22/23 Carryout: 1.219 bln bu; expected 1.195 bln bu; prior rpt = 1.388
    *USDA September 2022 US Corn Production: 13.944 bln bu.; expected 14.090 bln bushels; prev rpt 14.359
    *USDA September 2022 US Corn Yields: 172.5 bpa; expected 172.4 bpa; prev rpt 175.4


    USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Monday, Sept. 12.

    U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, world ending stocks estimates as a little bearish for corn.

    USDA lowered planted acreage for the 2022-23 corn crop by 1.2 million acres (ma) to 88.6 ma and cut estimated harvested acres by 1 ma to 80.8 million acres. USDA dropped the yield estimate 2.9 bpa to 172.5 bushels per acre. The average pre-report yield estimate was 172.4 bpa.

    That put corn production at 13.944 bb.

    USDA also lowered the old-crop carryover by 5 mb to 1.525 bb.

    On the demand side, USDA cut 2022-23 Feed and Residual use by 100 mb to 5.225 bb. Feed, Seed and Industrial use overall came at 6.775 bb, down 50 mb. Ethanol usage also was cut 50 mb to 5.325 bb.

    Total domestic usage came in at an even 12 bb, down 150 mb from August.

    Exports are pegged at 2.275 bb, down 100 mb from August.

    USDA put 2022-23 corn ending stocks at 1.219 bb, down 169 mb from August.

    The average farmgate price for the 2022-23 corn crop was bumped up 10 cents a bushel to $6.75 per bushel.

    Globally, USDA bumped up 2022-23 beginning stocks .3 million metric tons (mmt) to 312.14 mmt. Global production was lowered 7.03 mmt to 1,172.58 mmt. Global exports were lowered 2.04 mmt. That put ending stocks at 304.53 mmt, down 2.15 mmt.

    USDA held pat on Russian corn 15 mmt while lowering the European Union’s production 1.2 mmt to 58.8 mmt.

    On Ukraine, USDA bumped up production 1.5 mmt to 31.5 mmt and increased exports 1 mmt to 12.7 mmt.

    USDA also held pat on its forecast for Brazil’s 2021-22 production at 116 mmt. Argentina’s production was held at 53 mmt as well.


    Corn prices saw modest gains of around 0.25% Friday, putting corn down for the week 0.84%. Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WA
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