China and America, a Tale of Two Markets – Traders Market Weekly

Viewing 12 posts - 46 through 57 (of 57 total)
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  • #73293
    Truman
    Participant

    Uber (UBER 73.25, +4.26, +6.2%): provides 3-year outlook in Investor Day presentation slides; sees mid-to-high teens CAGR for gross bookings, high 30s% to 40% CAGR adjusted EBITDA growth, 90%+ free cash flow as percentage of adj EBITDA

    #73294
    Truman
    Participant

    US MBA mortgage applications
    W/E. 9 February
    -2.3% vs +3.7% prior
    Market index 205.1 vs 210.0 prior
    Purchase index 149.6 vs 153.5 prior
    Refinance index 489.6 vs 500.2 prior
    30-year mortgage rate 6.87% vs 6.80% prior

    #73295
    Truman
    Participant

    S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value,
    Nasdaq 100 futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value,
    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 111 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

    Pre-open gains in Meta Platforms (META 464.55, +4.43, +1.0%), NVIDIA (NVDA 731.80, +10.85, +1.5%), Amazon.com (AMZN 169.70, +1.06, +0.6%), and other mega caps have provided some support to the broader market this morning.

    #73296
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries hover a touch above their starting levels with shorter tenors maintaining their early outperformance.

    Yield:
    2-yr: -7 bps to 4.60%
    3-yr: -5 bps to 4.41%
    5-yr: -4 bps to 4.28%
    10-yr: -2 bps to 4.29%
    30-yr: UNCH at 4.47%

    #73297
    Truman
    Participant

    Commodities:

    WTI Crude: +0.1% to $77.97/bbl
    Gold: -0.2% to $2002.80/ozt
    Copper: +0.2% to $3.716/lb

    Currencies:

    EUR/USD: UNCH at 1.0706
    GBP/USD: -0.3% to 1.2552
    USD/CNH: -0.1% to 7.2255
    USD/JPY: -0.1% to 150.59

    #73298

    Dow 38,424.27 151.52 0.40%
    S&P 500 5,000.62 47.45 0.96%
    Nasdaq 15,859.15 203.55 1.30%
    VIX 14.39 -1.46 -9.21%
    Gold 2,004.10 -3.10 -0.15%
    Oil 76.63 -1.24 -1.59%
    BITCOIN 51,638 -75 -0.15%

    HAPPY V-DAY & musical tribute below 🙂

    #73313

    Dow 38,773.12 348.85 0.91%
    S&P 500 5,029.73 29.11 0.58%
    Nasdaq 15,906.17 47.03 0.30%
    VIX 14.18 -0.20 -1.39%
    Gold 2,016.00 11.70 0.58%
    Oil 78.16 1.52 1.98

    #73319
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Retail sales declined 0.8% month-over-month in January (consensus -0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.6%) in December. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.6% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) following an unrevised 0.4% increase in December.

    The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a slowdown in spending on goods in January. Some brutally cold weather during the month will get some blame for the slowdown, but that excuse falls short as the primary driver knowing that sales at nonstore retailers (the bulk of which are online retailers) declined 0.8% month-over-month.

    #73320
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    The February Philadelphia Fed Index checked in at 5.2 (consensus -9.0) versus -10.6 in January. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this series is 0.0, so the February reading reflects an expansion in manufacturing activity in February.

    Total industrial production decreased 0.1% month-over-month in January (consensus 0.4%) after a revised unchanged reading (from 0.1%) in December. The capacity utilization rate was 78.5% (consensus 78.9%), versus an upwardly revised 78.7% (from 78.6%) for December. Total industrial production was flat yr/yr while the capacity utilization rate was 1.1 percentage points below its long-run average.

    The key takeaway from the report is that the drop in industrial production in January was unduly influenced by weather-related issues, so the decline isn’t necessarily as bad as the headline suggests.

    #73322
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Business inventories increased 0.4% in December (consensus 0.4%) following a revised 0.1% decline in November.

    The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped to 48 in February (consensus 46) from 44 in January.

    Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 49 versus a draw of 75 bcf last week

    #73323
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 10 decreased 8,000 to 212,000 (consensus 221,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 3 increased 30,000 to 1.895 million.

    The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial claims support an economy operating in growth mode; however, the rising level of continuing jobless claims underscores a rising level of challenge in finding a new job after a layoff.

    #73324
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    January import prices increased 0.8% month-over-month. Excluding fuel, import prices were up 0.7%. Export prices also increased 0.8% month-over-month. Excluding agricultural products, export prices were up 0.9%.

    The key takeaway from the report was the deflation seen in year-over-year readings. Import prices were down 1.3% (and down 0.3% excluding fuel) while export prices were down 2.4% (and down 1.6% excluding agricultural products).

    The February New York Empire State Manufacturing Index checked in at -2.4 (consensus -9.0) following a -43.7 reading for January. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this series is 0.0, so the February reading connotes an ongoing contraction, albeit at a much slower pace than what was seen in January.

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