China and America, a Tale of Two Markets – Traders Market Weekly

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 57 total)
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  • #73271
    Truman
    Participant

    MOMR Highlights

    Demand growth unchanged for 2024 & 2025
    Oil demand growth in mbpd: 2023 base raised by 0.04 2024 unchanged at 2.25 2025 unchanged at 1.85.
    Non-OPEC supply growth: 2023 base raised by 0.30 2024 cut by 0.15 to 1.34 2025 unchanged at 1.27.
    Total Oil + Products stocks at 12/31 159mmb below 2015-19 ave, slightly more vs 151mmb below at 11/30
    OPEC crude production fell by 350kbpd m/m to 26.342mbpd in January based on secondary sources
    Russia’s liquids production in December is estimated to fall by about 90 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 10.8 mb/d. This includes 9.5 mb/d of crude oil and 1.3 mb/d of NGLs and condensate.
    Saudi Arabia told OPEC its crude production was at 8.956mbpd in January versus 8.944mbpd in December

    OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2024

    #73272

    PPPLLLUUUNNNGGGEEE … CLOSE TO 2% PULL BACK ON EQUITIES (-700 DOW)
    AS INFLATION IS STILL IN 3.1% CPI RANGE FOR JAN-2024
    Fed may not do 1st RATE DECREASE until 2nd half of 2024
    And for those of us who go into grocery stores, the 3.1 CPI rate
    is something we on MAIN STREET actually see

    The levee has broken at least for a day or two — on the straight up record breaking markets
    and if differing STATS come in — Bumbles will indeed bounce

    #73273

    Dow 38,272.75 -524.63 -1.35%
    S&P 500 4,953.17 -68.67 -1.37%
    Nasdaq 15,655.60 -286.95 -1.80%
    VIX 16.56 2.63 18.88%
    Gold 2,005.50 -27.50 -1.35%
    Oil 77.76 0.84 1.09%

    #73281

    Markets were perhaps a little oversold yesterday as we rally back a little today
    Still, EQUITIES are too high for me right now, as 1 day the great correction may set in
    BITCOIN @ $51,000 in very difficult inflationary times for AVG person on MAIN STREET is all I need to see
    Still, I believe in market & the ALGOs — with ton of KASH waiting on sidelines
    Like DUTCH TULIP bulbs back in 1637, am waiting for prices to fall & buy on major DIP later 🙂
    Still ROCK ON Wall Street 😉

    WISHING HAPPY VALENTINES DAY TO ALL 🙂

    #73282
    Truman
    Participant

    Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mixed note.
    Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7%,
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.8%,
    China’s Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY,
    India’s Sensex: +0.4%,
    South Korea’s Kospi: -1.1%,
    Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%.

    #73283
    Truman
    Participant

    India’
    January WPI Inflation 0.27% yr/yr (expected 0.53%; last 0.73%)

    #73284
    Truman
    Participant

    Japan
    Japan’s top currency diplomat said that recent yen moves have been rapid, and that action will be taken if needed while Finance Minister Suzuki said that the foreign exchange market is being watched with a strong sense of urgency.
    Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida said that the political funding law will be amended during the current legislative session.

    #73285
    Truman
    Participant

    New Zealand
    January Electronic Card Retail Sales 1.7% m/m (last -1.7%); 1.6% yr/yr (last -0.6%).
    January FPI 0.9% m/m (last -0.1%)

    #73286
    Truman
    Participant

    South Korea
    state think tank lowered its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.5% from 2.6% while the growth forecast was reaffirmed at 2.2%.

    #73287
    Truman
    Participant

    Major European indices trade in the green.
    STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%,
    Germany’s DAX: +0.4%,
    U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.0%,
    France’s CAC 40: +0.6%,
    Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.7%,
    Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

    #73288
    Truman
    Participant

    Eurozone
    Q4 GDP 0.0% qtr/qtr, as expected (last -0.1%); 0.1% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.0%).
    Q4 Employment Change 0.3% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.1%; last 1.3%).
    December Industrial Production 2.6% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.4%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected -4.1%; last -5.4%)

    #73289
    Truman
    Participant

    U.K.
    The U.K.’s CPI deflated more than expected in January (actual -0.6%; expected -0.3%) but the yr/yr rate remained at 4.0%.
    January CPI -0.6% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.4%); 4.0% yr/yr (expected 4.1%; last 4.0%).
    January Core CPI -0.9% m/m (expected -0.8%; last 0.6%); 5.1% yr/yr (expected 5.2%; last 5.1%).
    January Input PPI -0.8% m/m (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%)
    January Output PPI -0.2% m/m, as expected (last -0.5%). December House Price Index -1.4% yr/yr (expected -1.8%; last -2.1%)

    #73290
    Truman
    Participant

    European Central Bank policymakers De Guindos and De Cos said that the central bank will depend on data when it comes to timing the initial rate cut.

    #73291
    Truman
    Participant

    The German government will reportedly lower its 2024 growth forecast to 0.2% next week.

    German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp lowered its guidance for the year due to weak demand.

    #73292
    Truman
    Participant

    Airbnb (ABNB 143.96, -6.86, -4.6%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line; authorizes a new repurchase program of up to $6.0 bln; Ready to expand beyond core business with AI
    MGM Resorts (MGM 44.21, -1.45, -3.2%): beats by $0.35, beats on revs; sees FY24 CapEx of $795-$835 million domestically
    Lyft (LYFT 14.75, +2.62, +21.6%): beats by $0.11, misses on revs, adjusted EBITDA of $66.6 mln, above guidance of $50-$60 mln; guides for Q1 gross bookings of $3.5-$3.6 bln, anticipates positive free cash flow for full year; Expects to generate positive free cash flow on full year basis for first time in history; sees mid-teens total rides growth for 2024
    Instacart (CART 26.34, -1.51, -5.4%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, revs in-line, GTV up 7%; guides for Q1 GTV of $8.0-$82 bln, adjusted EBITDA of $150-$160 mln, authorizes additional $500 mln for share repurchases; COO Asha Sharma resigns from her position, effective March 1; Co announces restructuring plan that includes a reduction of ~250 employees or 7% of the Co’s global workforce
    Zillow (ZG 55.47, +3.41, +6.6%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line
    Akamai Tech (AKAM 118.55, -6.50, -5.2%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line; provides FY24 guidance on the call: expects +6-8% revenue growth in cc; non-GAAP EPS growth of +7-11% in cc
    Upstart (UPST 28.26, -4.66, -14.2%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus
    Allison Transmission (ALSN 74.99, +13.45, +21.9%): beats by $0.48, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs above consensus
    Robinhood Markets (HOOD 13.44, +1.60, +13.5%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs
    DaVita (DVA 121.41, +7.81, +6.9%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line
    Kraft Heinz (KHC 35.65, -0.48, -1.3%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS in-line
    QuidelOrtho (QDEL 41.05, -25.72, -38.5%): misses by $0.87, misses on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

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