Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: U.S. Treasuries Backed Off September Highs on Optimistic Chatter

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  • #51582
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries on track for a lower start with longer tenors expected to show relative weakness early.

    Overnight action saw the release of a big batch of data, headlined by better than December growth figures from China while Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment survey turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, reflecting a significant improvement in growth expectations.

    Economic data from the U.S. will be limited to a lower-tier manufacturing survey, but it is worth noting that Goldman Sachs (GS) reported weaker than expected EPS and revenue for Q4 while Morgan Stanley (MS) missed EPS expectations on above-consensus revenue.

    The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% at 102.09.

    Yields:
    2-yr: +3 bps to 4.25%
    3-yr: +4 bps to 3.93%
    5-yr: +5 bps to 3.66%
    10-yr: +6 bps to 3.57%
    30-yr: +7 bps to 3.69%

    #51723
    Truman
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries a lower start in most tenors while the 2-yr note is expected to begin closer to its unchanged level.
    Treasury yields are inching higher. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.12% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.41%.

    Worth noting that Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 bps and signaled a pause at the next meeting while Norges Bank announced no changes but hinted at a 25-bps hike in March.

    Yields:
    2-yr: +3 bps to 4.12%
    3-yr: +7 bps to 3.78%
    5-yr: +6 bps to 3.49%
    10-yr: +4 bps to 3.41%
    30-yr: +3 bps to 3.57%

    #51791
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    U.S. Treasuries lower start with shorter tenors relative weakness in the early going.

    Treasury futures began slipping after yesterday’s cash close, continuing their retreat into the night.

    The overnight session was mostly subdued, Japan’s core CPI was up 4.0% yr/yr in December, representing the sharpest rate of increase since 1982, but Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda repeated that the central bank plans to maintain its ultra-loose policy.

    In Europe, the U.K. recorded its sharpest drop in retail sales for the month of December since the series began in 1989. Crude oil is holding above its 50-day moving average (78.74) while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% at 102.39.

    Yields
    2-yr: +4 bps to 4.16%
    3-yr: +4 bps to 3.80%
    5-yr: +3 bps to 3.52%
    10-yr: +3 bps to 3.43%
    30-yr: +2 bps to 3.59%

    #51387
    KnovaWave
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries continued the move from last week through Wednesday giving back most of those gains Friday resulting in a slightly higher finish for t
    [See the full post at: Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: U.S. Treasuries Backed Off September Highs on Optimistic Chatter]

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