Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Risk on to Risk Off Transition Feeding Emerging Market Contagion

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  • #63992
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries sit on their lows after sliding from their opening levels.

    Treasuries opened near their unchanged levels but began facing pressure from the start.

    Issues in the belly of the curve have been at the forefront of the selling, though only the 10-yr yield has hit a fresh high for the year so far today as it nears its high from 2022 (4.333%).

    Yield:
    2-yr: +10 bps to 4.96%
    3-yr: +9 bps to 4.65%
    5-yr: +6 bps to 4.37%
    10-yr: +3 bps to 4.20%
    30-yr: +2 bps to 4.29%

    #64157
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries have backed down from their opening levels with longer tenors continuing their early underperformance.

    Longer tenors lagged in overnight action, and they remain behind with the 30-yr yield rising past last year’s high (4.425%) to a level not seen since 2011. 10-yr yield marked a session high (4.312%) just two basis points below its high from last year (4.333%), though it ended yesterday’s session at its highest level since 2008 and is on track to do the same today.

    Equities are off to a mixed, but somewhat flat, start with the S&P 500 (+0.1%) holding a modest gain while the Nasdaq (-0.3%) underperforms.

    Yield:
    2-yr: -1 bp to 4.96%
    3-yr: UNCH at 4.67%
    5-yr: +3 bps to 4.44%
    10-yr: +5 bps to 4.31%
    30-yr: +5 bps to 4.41%

    #63879
    KnovaWave
    Participant

    Financial conditions tightened, “risk on” has begun the transition to “risk off,” with the system now vulnerable to an abrupt change in the liquidity
    [See the full post at: Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Risk on to Risk Off Transition Feeding Emerging Market Contagion]

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