Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Basis Trades, Derivative Hedging, and Levered Speculation

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  • #66899
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries sit on their highs after a steady rise off their opening levels.

    However, even with the early bounce off lows, the 5-yr note and shorter tenors remain in negative territory while 10sn and 30s have turned positive. Treasuries began rising immediately after the cash start while a recent wave of buying sent the 10-yr note and the 30-yr bond into positive territory after they underperformed in early action.

    Meanwhile, equities also opened in the red, and they too have been rising off their lows, though the S&P 500 (-0.1%) remains a bit below its flat line at this time.

    Yield
    2-yr: +1 bp to 5.10%
    3-yr: +2 bps to 4.94%
    5-yr: UNCH at 4.86%
    10-yr: -1 bp to 4.92%
    30-yr: -3 bps to 5.06%

    #66931
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Early Bonds:

    U.S. Treasuries lower start with issues in the belly expected to show relative weakness in the early going.
    The Bank of Japan conducted another unscheduled buying operation, offering to purchase JGBs with maturities between 5- and 10-yrs and 10- to 25-yrs.

    In economic data, Australia’s Manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth month in a row, hitting its lowest level in six months, in the flash reading for October, while Services PMI dipped into contractionary territory. The situation in Europe was not much better as flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from France, Germany, and the U.K. remained in contractionary territory.

    The U.S. session will also feature the release of flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for October and the U.S. Treasury will sell $51 bln in 2-yr notes at 13:00 ET.

    Crude oil remains near its 50-day moving average (86.15) while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% at 105.83.

    Yield:
    2-yr: +2 bps to 5.08%
    3-yr: +1 bp to 4.89%
    5-yr: +2 bps to 4.81%
    10-yr: +2 bps to 4.86%
    30-yr: +1 bp to 5.00%

    #66828
    KnovaWave
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries ended the week mixed, the 5-yr note and shorter tenors added to this week’s gains while the long bond gave back some of its advance. T
    [See the full post at: Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Basis Trades, Derivative Hedging, and Levered Speculation]

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