Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Treasuries Gain as Recession Risks Grow

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  • #60621
    TradersCom
    Keymaster

    Early Bonds -largely unchanged from Friday

    2-yr yield is down 3 basis points to 4.69%
    5-yr yield is down 2.6 basis points to 3.967%
    10-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.75%.
    30-yr yield 3.854% unchanged

    #60687
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Early Bonds: U.S. Treasuries are on track for a modestly lower start after a fairly quiet night in the futures market.

    Treasury futures falling to lows alongside the release of latest inflation figures from the U.K., which have raised expectations for a 50-bps rate hike from the Bank of England tomorrow.

    However, the market bounced quickly, eventually returning to levels seen before the report was released. Elsewhere, property stocks in Hong Kong underperformed amid ongoing hope for more impactful stimulus measures while China Securities Journal speculated that more rate cuts will be made this year.

    The U.S. session will not feature any top-tier data, but Fed Chairman Powell will begin his two-day semiannual testimony on monetary policy with a 10:00 ET appearance before the House Financial Services Committee.

    Crude oil is little changed at $71.17/bbl while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 102.58.

    Yield
    2-yr: UNCH at 4.70%
    3-yr: +2 bps to 4.31%
    5-yr: +1 bp to 3.97%
    10-yr: +2 bps to 3.75%
    30-yr: +1 bp to 3.83%

    #60833
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Early Bonds: U.S. Treasuries higher that will reverse the bulk of yesterday’s losses. Treasury futures began inching higher last evening, accelerating their advance once the focus turned from Asia to Europe. Flash June Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from major economies painted a bleak growth picture, as Australia’s Manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth consecutive month in the flash reading for June while Japan’s Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction after expanding slightly in May.

    In Europe, flash Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany, France, and the U.K. showed a deepening contraction while France’s Services PMI also fell into contractionary territory.

    U.S. Crude oil is seeing an extension of yesterday’s sharp loss while the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.6% at 102.96, mostly thanks to a pullback in the euro.

    Yield
    2-yr: -5 bps to 4.75%
    3-yr: -5 bps to 4.32%
    5-yr: -6 bps to 3.99%
    10-yr: -6 bps to 3.74%

    #60834
    MoneyNeverSleeps
    Participant

    Treasury yields have been climbing off their lows.

    The 2-yr note yield, at 4.70% a short time ago, is down three basis points to 4.76% now.
    The 10-yr note yield, at 3.69% earlier, is down six basis points to 3.74%.

    #60526
    KnovaWave
    Participant

    U.S. Treasuries showed solid gains across the curve to finish the week. Friday’s move was fueled by flash June Manufacturing and Services PMI readings
    [See the full post at: Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Treasuries Gain as Recession Risks Grow]

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