- 07 Nov '19 at 4:02 pm #22439
The Bank of England voted 9 to 0…
[article]1821[/article]07 Nov '19 at 5:21 pm #22441
BoE Chairman Carney press conference
Recent Brexit deal creates a possibility of a pick up in UK growth
World risks slipping into low growth, low inflation but many of these dynamics occurred first in the UK
Both reduced Brexit uncertainty and stronger world economy assumed in BoE forecasts, but neither is assured
Now evidence that households are doing precautionary saving before Brexit
Brexit uncertainties are weighing particularly heavily on business investment
Reduced chance of a no -deal Brexit has pushed up sterling
Brexit agreement reduces risk of no deal significantly
pick up in UK growth likely to be limited by a lack of supply capacity in the economy
New BoE Brexit assumptions assume transition occurs over 3 years vs previous much longer transition.
UK growth in future years is helped by fiscal policy. stronger world and reduced uncertainty.
Fiscal policy is an upside risk to UK Growth outlook
If downside risks emerge to UK economy there may be a need to provide reinforcements , but this is not pre-committing
As more details of post-Brexit trade talks emerge, BoE will adjust its forecasts.
will do what is necessary to ensure there is an appropriate hand off to my successor
Need to distinguish between Jan 31 Brexit deadline and when new trading arrangements take effect07 Nov '19 at 5:22 pm #22442
BOE Carney press conference … rolls on
Global growth as well below trend, we are close to where we moved to something that starts to feel like a recession
There our growing questions whether some global supply chains are sustainable given trade tensions
all forms of protectionism are becoming more pervasive persistent and damaging than expected a few years ago
over time trade concerns can reduce global supply capacity and growth
on balance we think world economy is stabilizing
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