Bank of Canada Raises Rates 0.50% With Substantial Upward Revision on Inflation

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    Helmholtz Watson

    Bank of Canada raised overnights rate by half a percentage point from 0.50% to 1.0%. The last time the BoC raised its benchmark rate by a half percent
    [See the full post at: Bank of Canada Raises Rates 0.50% With Substantial Upward Revision on Inflation]


    Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Gov. Carolyn Rogers

    Labor market is really a strong indicator right now of excess demand in Canadian economy
    We don’t target components of inflation, would target overall level of inflation
    we need higher rates to moderate demand including demand in the housing market
    housing price growth is unsustainably strong in Canada
    it would not be a bad thing for the economy for the growth in housing prices to moderate a bit
    we do expect that housing price growth will moderate as rates go up


    BOC Gravelle: Rates are too low. May have to lift rates above neutral

    BOC will likely further lift is near term inflation forecasts
    Our current policy rate 1% is too stimulative
    It is possible bank may have to raise rates above neutral because parts of the economy might be less sensitive to hikes than in the past
    Stronger housing activity could also cause the BOC to lift rates past neutral
    On the other hand the bank may pause hikes as rate enters neutral range, and inflation starts to slow
    We could also see a larger than expected housing slowdown due to higher indebtedness and unsustainably higher housing prices
    Reiterates that the bank is prepared to be as forceful as needed when it comes to quickly normalizing the policy rate
    Main factor in recent C$ weakness despite higher commodity prices is likely strengthen of the US dollar
    Recent increasing commodity prices will likely boost business investment by less than half of what is typically expected, in part because investors expect demand for fossil fuels to moderate
    Slowdown in a growth does not have to mean high unemployment, by calling overall demand weekend reduce demand for labor and degree of labor shortages
    Broadening of the price pressures is a big concern but we are not seeing a repeat of 1970s style stagflation; inflation is much lower, economy is running pretty hot, job market is tight
    Employers could stop looking for new workers but keep the ones they have with little impact on the jobless rate; this is a scenario that delivers a soft landing
    We are raising rates gradually
    A 50 BP rise is a big move for a central bank

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