Apple Watch Series 4, iPhone Xs and iPhone XR Big Reveal

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    Super Harley

    Apple’s revealed its Apple Watch Series 4, iPhone…



    Rosenblatt analyst Jun Yhang Note:

    We believe combined iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be about 10 million in the first three days. This is based on current wait times in most regions (1-2 weeks) and our estimated weekly production volumes from OEMs. [b]We believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be weaker compared to the iPhone X preorders, which we had estimated last year to be about 12 million in the first three days, with lead times of 3-5 weeks.
    Based on our research, we believe Apple will produce a combined 35-36 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units in calendar third and fourth quarter. This is below what we believe Apple had produced for the iPhone X in 3Q17 and 4Q17 (36 million). Our channel checks suggest a total of ~10 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units will be shipped by the end of September, while a total of ~15 million units will be produced by the end of September…

    Although it is too early to tell iPhone XR sales, we believe iPhone XR sales will be higher than iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales at JD.Com. We will be comparing iPhone XR sales to sales of the iPhone 8 and 8+. Our current expectations for iPhone XR production are for about 60 million units to be produced, which is above iPhone 8 and 8+ production of 44-45 million units, and 50 million units to be shipped in the second half of 2018.

    Super Harley

    Apple Watch 4 Aiming For the Elderly Demographic

    There is one demographic that may be more interested in the watch for health reasons: the elderly. Apart from the electrical heart sensor, the new watch can detect when its owner has taken a nasty fall. The feature is turned on by default for people 65 and older (based on the birth date they entered into the watch’s software), and the watch will automatically call emergency services and send a message to your emergency contact if you remain immobile for a minute after a fall.

    via NYTimes

    Super Harley

    Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang Note

    Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales. We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS. We continue to believe total iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales will be lower than total iPhone X sales over a two-month period

    Overall, we believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales were weak. Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend.

    Both the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max 64G are available for immediate shipment, while the iPhone XS Max 512G has a shipment wait time. Apple’s ASP and gross margin should benefit from the quick sellout of the iPhone XS Max 512G.

    Based on recent iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max data, we believe iPhone XS production for the second half of 2018 will be cut from 15 million units to 10 million units. iPhone XS Max sales are steady, but we will have a clearer picture on sales when the iPhone XR is released.

    Maintain Buy rating and $200 price target.


    RBC Analyst Amit Daryanani Raised his price target on Apple to $250 from $240

    He said a RBC survey of 5,000 individuals showed a marked uptick in buying intentions as well as growth in the number of customers opting for larger memory.
    iPhone purchase intentions increased to 26 percent versus 20 percent last year, Daryanani said in a note to clients Wednesday, with 68 percent of respondents hoping to buy higher tier memory models.

    “We think demand for this generation iPhones – XS Max/XS/XR – is robust and average selling prices and gross margins could improve given mix benefits. iPhone XS Max was the most popular phone among prospective iPhone buyers with 25 percent preferring it in our survey despite its high price.” Daryanani wrote in thre note to clients.

    Maintains Buy rating, raises price target to $250 from $240.


    Being a computer type — Apple Watch 4 is most advanced timepiece on planet … but one does pay a premium price for minituratization & latest fad …. while personally I’m not ready but one — they are indeed the miracle watches we used to see in Dick Tracy cartoons. Mainly wanted to share some hands on reviews on U-Tube 8)

    [b][size=5]Apple Watch – ornate gold Milanese loop band


    Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) started as Overweight with a $272 price target at JPMorgan.

    NASDAQ: AAPL · September 27, 2:40 PM EDT
    225.24 ▲ 4.69 (2.13%)


    Wedbush Analyst Daniel Ives Initiates Apple at outperform with target at $310

    Cook & Co. Focused on Services Gold Mine; iPhone Cycle Humming

    With September Street numbers and FY19 set up well heading into a potentially robust iPhone product cycle along with a massive capital return strategy already in place as another tailwind, we continue to believe Apple shares are compelling over the coming year despite the recent run.

    In particular we continue to believe the “high octane fuel” from the services business that is on a trajectory to be a $50 billion annual revenue stream by 2020 speaks to the stepped-up monetization of Apple’s unparalleled installed base that is front and center for Cupertino (and its investors) over the coming years.

    Our sum-of-the-parts valuation on AAPL translates into a price target of $310 with our services business segment valuation between $400 billion to $450 billion and the rest of Cupertino’s core iPhone franchise resulting in a valuation that has clear upside from current levels in our opinion as Cook & Co. further execute on their long term consumer vision.

    In a nutshell, we ultimately believe AAPL’s valuation can approach the $1.5 trillion level based on our analysis of the monetization potential of its unparalleled consumer installed base over the coming years coupled by further multiple expansion around the services business.

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