What To Look For With Yellen and the FOMC


Here is Goldman Sachs economics client note :

– ]We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement.
– The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further.
– We think the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the balance sheet announcement is now closer at hand.[/li]

– Looking ahead, we continue to expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet normalization in September.
– We see a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December, for a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year.