What to Expect From US Jobs, Earnings and Unemployment After Tax Reform


[b]January non-farm payrolls 200K vs 180K expected

Prior was 148K (revised to 160K)
Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% exp
Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
Underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.1% exp
Private payrolls 196K vs 181K exp
Prior private payrolls revised to 166K from 146K

Benchmark revisions added an extra 118K jobs in 2017


Average hourly earnings 2.9% y/y vs 2.6% exp
Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m exp
Prior avg hourly earnings revised to 2.7% from 2.5%
Prior avg hourly earnings revised to +0.4% vs +0.3%
Hours worked 34.3 compared to 34.5 expected