U.S. Dollar and Yields Rise With Probability of Four Fed Hikes


Highlights of Minutes of May 2 FOMC meeting

Trade talks raised a ‘particularly wide’ range of risks
Fed funds could reach neutral level ‘before too long’ if rate increases continued noted by a few
Some Governors say it may soon be appropriate to change guidance
Most saw little evidence of overheating of labor market with wage pressures ‘still moderate’
A few cautioned that inflation expectations remained somewhat low
Majority see firming of inflation providing ‘reassurance’ that 2% would be reached
Some officials saw forward-guidance revisions appropriate soon
‘A few’ noted yield curve less reliable economic signal, while ‘several’ thought it remains important to watch as a recession warning
Modest inflation overshoot ‘could be helpful’
Most felt it would ‘soon be appropriate’ to hike should outlook remain intact