US production growth – UBS
US light tight oil is widely expected to drive global supply growth in the near term – we expect the “Big 5” shale regions (Anadarko, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara
and Permian) to contribute an average of ~900kb/d of growth annually over 2018- 21 – yet the pace of productivity growth and ultimate limits of US shale production
remain key points of debate. In particular, the degree to which productivity drops off outside of core acreage and the extent to which improving technology and
skills enhance recovery rates will have a significant impact on the trajectory of US supply