Market Weekly: June 7 – 13 2020

Helmholtz Watson

World Bank: Global economic output to fall -5.2% v +2.5% forecast in January

World Bank says global economic output to fall -5.2% due to coronavirus
Growth decline compares unfavorably to the forecast of 2.5% growth expectations in January
global output to rebound to 4.2%, but elevated uncertainty over Covid 19 would lead to downgrades in forecasts
On per capita GDP basis, 2020 recession will be deepest since 1945 – 46 global contraction after the end of World War II
advanced economies to see -7% contraction in 2020 and +3.9% growth in 2021
forecast 2020 contractions of -6.1% for US and Japan. -9.1% for euro area
China to maintain positive growth of +1% in 2020
India to contract -3.2%
Brazil to contract -8.0%
global economy could shrink 8% of coronavirus lockdowns are extended by another 3 months with advanced economies contracting -10%
further policy actions to support growth likely needed later this year