Market Weekly: June 21 – 27 2020


June prelim US Manufacturing Markit PMI 49.6 v 50.0 expected Prior 39.8
Output 47.8 vs 34.4 prior
New orders 49.5 vs 34.6 prior

46.7 vs 48.0 expected
New business 48.7 vs 36.9
Prior services was 37.5
Composite index at 46.8 vs 37.0 prior.
Comments from Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit:

“The flash PMI data showed the US economic downturn abating markedly in June. The second quarter started with an alarming rate of collapse but output and jobs are now falling at far more modest rates in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The improvement will fuel hopes that the economy can return to growth in the third quarter.

However, although brief, the downturn has been fiercer than anything seen previously, leaving a deep scar which will take a long time to heal. We anticipate that the US economy will contract by just over 8% in 2020. The coming months will therefore see the focus turn to just how much recovery momentum the economy can muster to recoup this lost output. Any return to growth will be prone to losing momentum due to persistent weak demand for many goods and services, linked in turn to ongoing social distancing, high unemployment and uncertainty about the outlook, curbing spending by businesses and households. The recovery could also be derailed by new waves of virus infections. Continual vigilance by the Fed, US Treasury and health authorities will therefore be required to keep any recovery on track.”