Coronavirus Highest Risk International Cities Bangkok, Hong Kong and Taipei


High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

10 Mar 2020 Last revised: 14 Mar 2020
Jingyuan Wang
Beihang University (BUAA)
Ke Tang

Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University
Kai Feng
Beihang University (BUAA)
Weifeng Lv

Beihang University
Date Written: March 9, 2020

This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.