Reply To: Cautious Investor — Market Weekly

#98580
Truman
Participant

Total PPI was unchanged month-over-month in July consensus: 0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline (from -0.3%) in June.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month (consensus: 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.2%) in June.

Total PPI was up 4.7% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in June. Core PPI was up 4.2% year-over-year versus 4.7% in June.

The key takeaway from the report is that, like the CPI, it was devoid of “new” inflation-baked surprises. Headline and core readings trended in the right direction of disinflation, which is an appeasement for today’s trading dynamic, but of course the inflation rates themselves remain on the high side and need to come down much more to appease inflation hawks.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 increased by 9,000 to 209,000 (consensus: 205,000).

Continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 1 decreased by 22,000 to 1.777 million.

The key takeaway from the report is the 4-week moving average for initial claims running below 200,000 (currently 199,000), which is an historically low number consistent with a labor market that is light on layoff activity.