The US non-farm payrolls employment report for July 2026
Huge losses in government jobs and the unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July (consensus 86,000), from a downwardly revised prior increase of 20,000 (from 57,000). Two-month net revision -103K May was +129K
Change in private payrolls +30K vs +78K expected from a downwardly revised prior increase of 30,000 (from 49,000).
Change in manufacturing payrolls +30K vs +4K expected
Government payrolls -53K vs +8K prior
The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% (consensus 4.2%), from the previous level of 4.2%.
Unrounded unemployment vs 4.1889% prior
Participation rate 61.4% vs 61.5% prior
U6 underemployment rate % vs 7.9% prior
Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
Average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.5% expected
Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
Ahead of the data, USD/JPY was trading at 158.33 and Fed funds futures were pricing in a 57% chance of a rate hike in September.