Reply To: Traders Market Weekly: it’s a Mad, Mad World of Political Uncertainty


BoJ Tankan: Large manufacturing index rises to +13 (expected 12, prior 11)
Bank of Japan Tankan report for Q2 2024

Headlines via Reuters:

June big manufacturers index +13 (Reuters poll: 12), this is a 2 year high
September big manufacturers index seen at +14 (Reuters poll: 13)
June big non-manufacturers index +33 (Reuters poll: 33)
September big non-manufacturers index seen at +27 (Reuters poll: 31)
June small manufacturers index -1 (Reuters poll: -1)
September small manufacturers index seen at 0 (Reuters poll: 1)
June small non-manufacturers index +12 (Reuters poll: 12)
September small non-manufacturers index seen at +8 (Reuters poll: 9)
Japan all firms see dollar averaging 144.77 yen for FY2024/25
Japan all firms see euro averaging 155.40 yen for FY2024/25
Japan big manufacturers see dollar averaging 142.68 yen for FY2024/25
June all firms employment index -35
June all firms financial condition index +12 vs March +11
June big manufacturers’ production capacity index +3 vs March +3
Japan big manufacturers see FY2024/25 recurring profits -8.8%
Japan big firms see FY2024/25 capex +11.1% (Reuters poll: 13.9%)
Japan small firms see FY2024/25 capex -0.8% (Reuters poll: 0.5%)
Separately, firms expect the CPI to rise to 2.4% in a year. I’ll have more to come on this separately.

The term “Tankan” is short for “Tanshin Kansoku,” which roughly translates to “Short-term Economic Observation”.

Published quarterly by the BOJ and is a closely watched economic indicator where the BoJ surveys thousands of Japanese firms of all sizes, across a wide range of industries

Questions are focused on firms’ current business conditions and their expectations for the coming quarter and year
covering aspects such as production, sales, profits, investment in plant and equipment, employment, prices, and more
The headline(s) to to the report are diffusion indexes, which reflects the difference between the percentage of firms that are optimistic about business conditions and those that are pessimistic.

A positive reading suggests that more companies are optimistic, while a negative reading indicates more pessimism
The report is segmented into “large manufacturers,” “large non-manufacturers,” “small manufacturers,” and “small non-manufacturers” so as to help provide insight into different sectors of the economy.