Reply To: Traders Market Weekly: Fear, Greed, War and Volatility


Total retail sales in March increased 0.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%) following an upwardly revised 0.9% (from 0.6%) in February. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 1.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.3%) in February.

The key takeaway from the report is that the U.S. consumer, fortified by a strong job market, continued to spend freely in March in an act that will continue to support the soft landing/no landing outlook for the U.S. economy.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April checked in at -14.3 (consensus -6.0) versus -20.9 in March. A number below 0.0 denotes a contraction in activity. Notably, the Prices Paid Index increased to 33.7 from 28.7.

Treasury yields moved higher in response.

The 10-yr note yield is up 11 basis points to 4.61% and the 2-yr note yield is up nine basis points to 4.97%.