U.S. Job Market in January Delivered Much Stronger Key Metrics with Huge NFP Upside Revisions
The January employment reports delivered much stronger key metrics than expected, nonfarm payrolls, private sector payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings were all stronger than expected. In particular payroll data where January non-farm payrolls came in 353K vs +180K expected and December was revised to +333K from+216K, November was revised to +173K from +164K, a combined 126,000 higher than previously reported. Updated population estimates decreased the estimated size of the civilian non-institutional population by 625,000 and the civilian labor force by 299,000 in December.
U.S. Treasuries slid after the jobs report with expectations higher by a wide margin with payroll growth coming in twice as high as expected. There was a notable drop in the average workweek however to 34.1 hours from 34.3 hours. The key takeaway is that the Fed on balance will likely find as Chair Powell alluded to at this week’s FOMC that a March rate cut is unlikely.
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