Reply To: Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: 10 Year Yields at Year Lows with Cooling Economy

#56274
MoneyNeverSleeps
Participant

Treasury yields moved noticeably higher in response to the jobless data release.

The 2-yr note yield, at 3.69% just before 8:30 a.m. ET, is up two basis points to 3.79% and the 10-yr note yield, at 3.26% just before the release, is up one basis point to 3.29%.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 1 decreased by 18,000 to 228,000 (consensus 203,000) from last week’s upwardly revised level of 246,000 (from 198,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 25 increased by 6,000 to 1.823 million from last week’s revised level of 1.817 million (from 1.689 million).

The key takeaway from the report is that it featured a revision to the seasonal adjustment factor, which resulted in big upward revisions to figures from recent weeks a sizable miss in this week’s report. That said, the higher level of claims will invite some questions about the strength of the labor market after last week’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey for February showed a big drop in openings.

The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 4,250 to 237,750 from last week’s revised level of 242,000 (from 198,250).
The four-week moving average for continuing claims increased by 10,500 to 1,804,000 from last week’s revised level of 1,793,500 (from 1,691,750).
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending March 18 was 1,905,334, a decrease of 1,183 from the previous week. In the same week a year ago, there were 1,728,353 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs.

Yields:
2-yr: -1 bp to 3.75%
3-yr: +1 bp to 3.55%
5-yr: -1 bp to 3.34%
10-yr: UNCH at 3.29%
30-yr: -1 bp to 3.55%