All about the Fed now –futures trading implies a 74.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed and a 25.5% chance of no hike at all.
Bank of America forecasts the target range will be raised appropriately by the Fed by 25 points to 4.75% to 5.00% with the short-term loans offered through the Bank Term Funding Program seen as an effective backstop to more banking fallout.
Moody’s analyst Mark Zandi is firm that the Fed should not tighten policy due to higher recession risks. “If they raise rates, that qualifies as a mistake, and I would call it an egregious mistake,” he warned.