Reply To: Traders Market Weekly: Inflation and Bank Earnings


China’s December Manufacturing PMI 47.0 (expected 48.0; last 48.0) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 41.6 (last 46.7); December Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected 48.8; last 49.4)
South Korea’s December Exports -9.5% (expected -10.1%; last -14.0%) and Imports -2.4% (expected -0.6%; last +2.7%)
India’s December Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 57.8 (expected 54.3; last 55.7)
Japan’s Nikkei wasn’t part of the mix as it was closed for holiday.
Following the U.S. close on Friday, China released its official manufacturing PMI (47.0) and non-manufacturing PMI (41.6) reports for December.
They were both weaker than expected and lower than the November readings, which is to say they showed a further deceleration in business activity that coincided with rising COVID cases.
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI (49.0) was a bit stronger than expected but down from November.
Bloomberg reported that China’s Beige Book notes the economy likely contracted in Q4. Not surprisingly, speculation is swirling that the PBOC is likely to cut interest rates and/or the required reserve ratio in the first half of 2023.
A Nikkei report highlighted the possibility of the BOJ considering boosting its inflation forecast for FY24 in a move that would be construed as a shift away from its ultra-loose policy.