Reply To: Traders Market Weekly: Oil Caps, Sanctions and Services


November CPI and core CPI readings for the eurozone were a bit cooler than expected, fueling speculation about peak inflation being in the rear-view mirror. That said, recessionary concerns remain alive after France reported a drop in consumer spending in October while Germany’s unemployment ticked up unexpectedly.
Bank of England Chief Economist Pill repeated that inflation is expected to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2023, but also said that more rate hikes are needed.
Eurozone’s November CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 1.5%); 10.0% yr/yr (expected 10.4%; last 10.6%). November Core CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.6%); 5.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 5.0%)
Germany’s November Unemployment Change 17,000 (expected 13,000; last 9,000) and November Unemployment Rate 5.6% (expected 5.5%; last 5.5%)
France’s November CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 1.0%); 6.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 6.2%). October PPI -0.1% m/m (last 1.0%) and October Consumer Spending -2.8% m/m (expected -0.6%; last 1.3%). Q3 GDP 0.2% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%)
Italy’s November CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 3.4%); 11.8% yr/yr (expected 11.3%; last 11.8%). Q3 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 1.1%); 2.6% yr/yr, as expected (last 4.9%)
Spain’s October Retail Sales 1.0% yr/yr (last 0.4%). September Current Account surplus EUR360 mln (prior deficit of EUR110 mln)
Swiss November ZEW Expectations -57.5 (last -53.1)