Reply To: Wheat Futures Hold Gains on Lower European Production and Black Sea Uncertainty


USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Monday, Sept. 12.

U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for wheat, the world ending stocks estimates neutral for wheat prices.

USDA expects farmers to harvest 1.783 bb of wheat in 2022-23. Production is unchanged from last month, which is expected. USDA will update its wheat production forecasts in its Small Grains Summary, which will be released Sept. 30.

The agency made no changes to demand either, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 610 mb. It did, however, lower the national average farm gate price by a quarter to $9.00 per bushel.

USDA made many more changes to global wheat figures of 2022-23. Ending stocks rose to 268.57 mmt, up 1.23 mmt from last month. USDA sees higher supplies, consumption and exports, with production increases in Ukraine and Russia offsetting lower beginning stocks. Ukrainian production was increased by 1 mmt to 20.5 mmt, while Russian production was up 3 mmt to 91 mmt. If realized, Russian production would be a new record.