Reply To: Soybean Futures Hold onto Gains from Bullish WASDE Report


USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Monday, Sept. 12.

Soybean yield was cut 1.4 bpa to 50.5 bpa

U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for soybeans with world ending stocks estimates as bullish for soybeans.

USDA says farmers will harvest 4.38 bb of soybeans in 2022 with a national average yield of 50.5 bpa. That’s 153 mb less than last month’s forecast and reflects a 1.4 bpa cut to yield and a half-million-acre revision in planted acreage. Both are toward the low end of pre-report expectations.

USDA lowered ending stocks for 2022-23 to 200 mb. That’s 45 mb lower than last month and the lowest level in seven years. To arrive at that estimate, USDA lowered planted acreage to 87.5 million and harvested acreage to 86.6 ma. USDA increased beginning stocks by 15 mb to 240 mb, putting supplies at 4.633 bb.

On the demand side, USDA lowered its crush forecast by 20 mb, cut exports by 70 mb and trimmed residual use by 3 mb. That lowered overall demand to 4.433 mb, resulting in 200 mb of ending stocks and a national average farm gate price of $14.35, unchanged from last month.

For old-crop, 2021-22 ending stocks, USDA sees supplies at 240 mb, reflecting a lower export forecast.

Globally, USDA pegged ending stocks for 2022-23 at 98.92 mmt, which is toward the low end of pre-report expectations and 2.49 mmt from last month. It reflects lower stocks in the U.S and China. Brazil and Argentina’s production forecasts for the upcoming crop were left unchanged at 149 mmt and 51 mmt respectively. USDA lowered China’s import forecast by 1 mmt to 97 mmt.