Reply To: Forex Weekly Outlook – Geopolitics and Dollar Pushes Euro and Yuan Through Extremes


Scotia Bank forecast

Beyond the stagflation risk, the GBP will not react well to renewed equity market weakness as central banks persist with interest rate increases
the domestic political backdrop remains unhelpful (a new PM, Brexit issues unresolved and independence movements at home stirring again)
broad, trade-weighted index (TWI) measure of the pound could fall another 4-5% broadly or so before reaching the lows seen around the 1992 Exchange Rate Mechanism debacle, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit vote and the 2020 pandemic
The fact that broad TWI losses stalled around 73.5 on each of those very different calamities for the pound suggests it is a point worth keeping a close eye on moving forward.
A return to that point in this cycle might imply — roughly — downside risks for GBP/USD to the 1.10 zone and upside risks for EUR/GBP to the 0.90 area in the next few months