Reply To: NY Fed Williams Expects US Jobless Rate to Rise from 3.7% to 4.5-5.0%


NY Fed Pres. Williams speaking:

Debate of 50-75 basis points is right position for July meeting
More data to come, but Fed still need to move expeditiously to more normal rate levels
Fed funds rate at 3% to 3.5% by year end, but a lot of uncertainty after that
Terminal level of rate hike cycle will hinge on behavior of inflation , and inflation expectations
rising market interest rates are affecting the economy, but full effect of the Fed pivoted won’t be apparent until later in the year
spending data is probably the 1st place where global slowdown will be seen. Jobs will lag
expects to get some help from supply-side, but demand and supply must be aligned
commodity price reversals could have a disinflationary impact
recession not base case but clear the economy is slowing
negative GDP in Q1 enter data into the spring not a signal of something fundamentally negative