Reply To: Forex Weekly Outlook – Surging Global Bond yields and Acute Currency Market Instability Boost Dollar


Johnson prepares fightback as allies admit confidence vote now likely

The vote will be triggered if 54 MPs in his party send letters in support of the vote. 180 votes would then be needed to remove him as PM.

In a remarkable shift in tone, the business minister Paul Scully acknowledged on Sunday night that a vote of no confidence “might well happen”, but insisted Johnson would “face it down”. “Whatever happens, we’ve got to get back to governing, to tackle the things that people want us to do on a day-to-day basis.”

Hours earlier, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, had said he did not think there would be a vote this week.

Just 18 MPs have publicly declared that they have sent a letter, but MPs who are running the numbers believe there are at least 70 who have now publicly expressed a lack of faith in the prime minister.

Most MPs seem resigned that the dam will break, but the timing is virtually impossible to guess given the lack of coordinated effort. “It’s all about individual MPs. There’s not even any WhatsApp groups as far as I know,” said one MP who opposes Johnson.

Most MPs are prepared to bet that a challenge is imminent. “I’d say we were already there, and when Graham Brady [the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, who receives the letters] gets back to his office on Monday, there will be a load more,” the MP said. “I’d expect the vote on Wednesday.”

The vote is a secret, in-person ballot held in parliament. To survive in office, a Tory leader requires the backing of a minimum of half of his MPs plus one, meaning Johnson would need the support of at least 180 of his parliamentary party.

“Getting to 180 is a big ask, but it’s a secret ballot,” one MP said. “I think a third of the payroll could go against him. If it’s a third of them, and two-thirds of backbenchers, suddenly you’re in business.