Goldman Sachs analysts preview for US jobs Report
Well below the consensus:
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in May … a slowdown from the +428k pace in both of the previous two months and below the consensus of +323k
We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, in line with the consensus
Job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labour market is tight—particularly in May before the arrival of the youth summer workforce—and all four Big Data employment indicators we track suggest a below-consensus report.
Job postings data also indicate a sequential decline in labour demand, albeit to still very high levels.
On the positive side, the May seasonal factors have evolved favourably in recent years and represent a tailwind of roughly 100k, in our view.