Reply To: Traders Market Weekly: Memorial Weekend a Time for Reflection

#37281
Truman
Participant

There have been some confirmed cases of monkeypox across the US. It is similar to smallpox but milder and not expected to become a pandemic.

SIGA Tech (SIGA) +19% is a commercial stage pharma play on the disease. In January 2022, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved the marketing authorization application for oral Tecovirimat SIGA, the same formulation that was approved by the U.S. FDA in July 2018 under the brand name TPOXX. The approved EMA label has a broader indication for use to treat smallpox, monkeypox, cowpox, and vaccinia complications following vaccination against smallpox. SIGA closed on Friday with a $747M EV while 3.3% of the 39M share float was recently sold short.

GeoVax (GOVX) +40% is another potential play on monkeypox with its MVA-based (modified vaccinia Ankara) vaccine platform. From Maxim: “An MVA-based vaccine for smallpox/monkeypox JYNNEOS, developed and commercialized by Bavarian Nordic (BAVA – NR) has been ordered by the US Government (13M doses, $119M)… Over the last week, BAVA shares are up ~44% and GeoVax ~100%, though from a market cap perspective, GeoVax remains undervalued ($13M market cap), in our view. We also note Emergent Biolosolutions (EBS – NR) shares are up ~22% after the company announced its acquisition of Chimerix’s (CMRX – Buy) smallpox therapy Temexa on 5/16/22. Even with the shares up over 100% last week, we note that with $16M of cash (as of 3/31/22) and no debt, GOVX shares are still trading below cash.” As Maxim notes, GOVX had a negative $3M EV as of Friday with $16M in cash; Some 4% of the 8M share float was recently sold short so this is one worth keeping on the radar near term. The $4 level does seem possible in GOVX but I am unlikely to chase the stock this morning.