Reply To: Federal Reserve Raises Rates for First Time Since 2018 as Expected by 25 Basis Points


Fed’s Williams via Reuters )

uncertainty around the economic outlook is great and situation in Ukraine adds to that
for the us, first direct effects of Ukraine crisis are higher energy prices factoring into higher inflation
a negative supply shock to oil can have a hit on consumers’ ability to spend
people still have a lot of savings built up to support spending
the economy is coming into this with a lot of forward momentum
says longer term inflation expectations are not moving that much
Fed has to take actions to get inflation back down to 2% goal and make sure inflation expectations stay anchored
consumers are willing to pay higher prices when demand is strong
businesses are facing higher costs from wages or import prices and other things
pricing power will shift as supply shortages are addressed
some adjustments in demand and labor market may take longer than initially expected
there’s a lot more labor supply out there, it will just take a while to see how much and when it comes back
Fed doesn’t know exactly what the fed funds rate will be next year because it will depend on the economy
it’s clear with inflation so high that the fed needs to get monetary policy away from where we are today
Fed should move the fed funds rate above near zero levels through a series of rate increases
Fed will want to move the balance sheet back to more normal levels
says this is the year of both moving the fed funds rate to more normal levels and also of starting balance sheet reduction