EIA Reports -78 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Draw

Last week’s natural gas inventories drew -78 Bcf the EIA reported with futures drifting around 2,70 cents since 20 cents bove multi year lows. LNG, Mexico and warmer weather the focus.

Last week’s natural gas inventories drew -78 Bcf the EIA reported with futures drifting around 2.70 not far off above multi year lows. LNG, Mexico and warmer weather the focus.

us natgasl locations

The last 3 week’s draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather is modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 2/22/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday March 1 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual –78 Bcf Prior  -124 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  – 76 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -61 to – 83 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 81 to -79 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -124 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Weather

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: -74 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: –86 Bcf

“While this week’s estimate compares bullishly to last year’s 7-Bcf withdrawal, it is bearish relative to the five-year average draw of 118 Bcf. If the EIA announces an 86-Bcf draw, it would imply a balancing item of -35 Bcf for the week.  This would mean the suite of models underestimated demand, overestimated supply, or did some combination of both by 7 Bcf/d over the course of the week. The balancing item had started to trend lower last week, but this marks a reversal as the reference week’s balance is 0.7 Bcf/d larger than the trailing three-week average. – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey – 80
  • DJ Survey – 74
  • Reuters Survey -77
  • Platts Survey -79

Analysts

  • Gabe Harris -71
  • Genscape – 82
  • Kidduff Report -83
  • Shura Li – Pira -79
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -72
  • Norse – 77
  • Point Logic -72
  • Robry825 – 68
  • Schneider Electric -72
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -80
  • Andy Wiessman -61

 

Banks/Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup – 80
  • Macquarie Bank – 78
  • Raymond James – 63
  • TFS – 69

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,790 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2369
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2172

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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