Natural gas futures languished after EIA reported a higher than expected build of +112 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
Natural gas futures languished after EIA reported a higher than expected build of +112 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 9/26/2019
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday Oct 3 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +112 Bcf Prior +102 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +108 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +98 to 115 Bcf
- EIA swap: +109+110 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report +102 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 3205 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 2761
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3252
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +106
- DJ Survey +101
- Reuters Survey +105
- Platts Survey +109
Banks and Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup +100
- Macquarie +110
- TFS +107
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Refinitiv +112
- Bart Roy +
- Genscape +109
- Gabe Harris +
- WoodMac +106
- Kidduff Report +106
- Pira +
- Robry825 +114
- The Pit Boss +107
- Norse +114
- Andrea Paltry +
- Point Logic +115
- Bespoke +105
- Jacob Meisel +
- Schneider Electric +103
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +111
- Trade Mechanics +
- EBW +105
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model +107 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+108 Bcf
“Volatility in modeled estimates have increased significantly in the run-up to October. The range in model outputs saw the widest range of potential estimates since the Winter, with the risk of a much stronger injection in the south-central salts offset by the risk for weaker injections in the East and Midwest regions.” – Platts (Bentek)
EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
US natgas dry production
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas corrected off first target at Murrey +3/8 testing the tenkan in iv of (C) or (1). Below the Kijun at 50 dma needs to spit here otherwise X correction likely with daily cloud. Chikou rebalanced and TEnkan resistance above.
Natural Gas spat the weekly 50wma and 3/8 confluence. Below we tested the tenkan and Kijun – watch for kiss or crossover. Resistance MM & 50wma, support the weekly channel and the tenkan
Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For Sep 24, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -14,190 longs -1,679 shorts -15,869 net change 39% net long.
- 39% net long (Prior Weeks 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk