EIA Reports +91 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build

Natural gas futures finally bounced out of their doldrums, well 15 cents is big these days. The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +91 Bcf this week.  Memorial weekend ahead so heat predictions starting to swirl with builds ahead.

Natural gas futures finally bounced out of their doldrums, well 15 cents is big these days. The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +91 Bcf this week.  Memorial weekend ahead so heat predictions starting to swirl with builds ahead.

us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 5/10/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday May 17 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +91 Bcf  Prior  +106 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +90 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +83 to +99 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +87 to +91 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +106 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of TradersNG COT 5 14 18

 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +89 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +91 Bcf

Power burn stepped up this week, dampening some early expectations for a string of triple-digit builds through May. Supply was relatively flat week over week with drops in onshore production being offset by an increase in Canadian imports. Power burn increased 1.7 Bcf/d, helped by a smaller bump in residential and commercial demand due to cooling in the Midwest and Northeast, resulting in a 2.4 Bcf/d tighter market week over week. On average, the US warmed slightly, with cold weather in the mountain region offsetting a 5-degree increase in south-central – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +94
  • DJ Survey +93
  • Reuters Survey +92
  • Platts Survey +93

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +
  • Macquarie +89
  • Raymond James +93
  • TFS +91

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +88
  • Gabe Harris +89
  • Genscape +94
  • Kidduff Report +99
  • Shura Li – Pira +88
  • Peter Marrin – SNL +93
  • Norse +90
  • Andrea Paltry +91
  • Point Logic +93
  • Robry825 +99
  • Schneider Electric +88
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +93
  • Trade Mechanics +85
  • Andy Wiessman +96

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

     

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for week 19 of 2018

 

 

 

 

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,538 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2359
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2039

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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