Natural gas futures lifted to key levesl at week’s end as weather, LNG exports and a short market pressured offers. EIA reported as expected lower than expected build of +78 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
Natural gas futures lifted to key levels at week’s end as weather, LNG exports and a short market pressured offers. EIA reported as expected build of +78 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 9/5/2019
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday Sept 12 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +78 Bcf Prior +84 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +82 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +67 to 90 Bcf
- EIA swap: +82+83 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report +59 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 3019 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 2821
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3096
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +84
- DJ Survey +
- Reuters Survey +89
- Platts Survey +
Banks and Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup +
- Macquarie +
- TFS +
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Refinitiv +
- Bart Roy +75
- Genscape +
- Gabe Harris +
- WoodMac +
- Kidduff Report +
- Pira +
- Robry825 +
- NG Junkie +
- Norse +
- Andrea Paltry +90
- Point Logic +
- The Pit Boss +82
- Jacob Meisel +
- Schneider Electric +
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
- Trade Mechanics +
- EBW +
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model + Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+ Bcf
“ Temperatures plummeted across the US for the final week of August, which averaged 5 degrees cooler overall, with the largest drop coming from the Northeast, which declined 8 degrees week over week. As a result, modeled power burn estimates for the Lower 48 came in more than 5 Bcf/d lower, which was only partially offset by a 1.1 Bcf/d gain in residential and commercial demand. Inventories are forecast to measure 2,931 Bcf, with the deficit to the five-year average levels shrinking from 100 to 93 Bcf. – Platts (Bentek)
EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
US natgas dry production
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas continued to rally after the tenkan crossed through the Kijun and closed last week over the 50 dma and just under the daily cloud. Prices moved orderly through the cloud as record low futures longs sniffed at offers. The 1-2 set up paving the way with Chikou in balance.
Natural Gas continued out of the weekly channel after it closed over the tenkan and eventually the Kijun which min target. We also tested they breakdown as marked. Resistance MM & 50wma, support the weekly channel and the tenkan
Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For Sep 3, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change +10,777 longs -25,375 shorts +36,152 net change 30% net long.
- 30% net long (Prior Weeks 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk