Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +36 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build

With Hurricane Barry in focus EIA reported an expected build of +36 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.

With Hurricane Barry in Focus EIA reported a larger than expected build of +36 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.

us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/18/2019

  • Via
  • Release Time: Thursday July 27 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +36 Bcf Prior +62 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +34 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +29 to 43 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +32 +33 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +62 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2533 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2242
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2676

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report




Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch

EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey +34
  • DJ Survey +33
  • Reuters Survey +37
  • Platts Survey +33

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +42
  • Macquarie +34
  • TFS +36


  • AgWxMan +
  • Bespoke +34
  • Bart Roy +36
  • Genscape +35
  • Gabe Harris +43
  • WoodMac +42
  • Kidduff Report +31
  • Shura Li – Pira +29
  • Robry825 +40
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +42
  • Andrea Paltry +34
  • Point Logic +37
  • The Pit Boss +34
  • Jacob Meisel +34
  • Schneider Electric +40
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +41
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +37

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to – some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +34 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+31 Bcf

“ “This week is expected to tighten the market further, as temperatures across the US nudge to new year-to date highs, adding another 2 Bcf/d of power burn demand. Even as the hot weather pulls back on inventory gains for the time being, the milder 14-day weather outlook implies that the recent bullish injections relative to the five-year average are unlikely to maintain for what remains of the Summer, and are only likely to be sporadic without an assist from Mexican exports.”” – Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly


Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999







via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly




Natural Gas Production Watch

March US natgas dry production was 89.38 Bcf/day. Only +0.07 vs Feb. +9.23 Bcf/d YoY.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High This Week



++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates

May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.


For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy



Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy


Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999



For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999


Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas reversed daily back throughTenkan (orange) with flattening Kijun above there is potential for a reversal. NG couldnt get above 50dma, 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey confluence. With record low futures longs  the 1-2 set up in a bull flag has potential.

MW NG D 7 19 19

Natural Gas maintained the downward channel thwarted by the tenkan  and the 2017-18 lows. Use the channel as your guide with Tenkan upside resistance at week’s end. .

MW NG W 7 19 19

Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)


Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure May 10, 2019

Nymex Nattygas atm vol May 9, 2019

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For July 16, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -13004 longs -18, 080 shorts +5,076 net change
  • 32% net long (Prior Weeks 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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