With Hurricane Barry in focus EIA reporting a larger than expected build of +81 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.
With Hurricane Barry in Focus EIA reporting a larger than expected build of +81 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.
Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/4/2019
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Wednesday July 11 2019 12:00 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +81 Bcf Prior +89 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +77 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +63 to 84 Bcf
- EIA swap: +79 +80@ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report +89 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 2390 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 2141
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2542
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +79
- DJ Survey +75
- Reuters Survey +73
- Platts Survey +77
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup +65
- Macquarie +76
- TFS +69
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Bespoke +76
- Bart Roy +79
- Genscape +78
- WoodMac +84
- Kidduff Report +69
- Shura Li – Pira +77
- Robry825 +88
- NG Junkie +
- Norse +74
- Andrea Paltry +63
- Point Logic +78
- The Pit Boss +77
- Jacob Meisel +78
- Schneider Electric +69
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +72
- Trade Mechanics +
- EBW +71
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model +71 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+80 Bcf
“The resulting gains in power burn were partially offset by production growth in the Northeast and Midwest, higher imports from Canada into the northern US and lower residential and commercial demand across the board.” – Platts (Bentek)
EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
March US natgas dry production was 89.38 Bcf/day. Only +0.07 vs Feb. +9.23 Bcf/d YoY.
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High This Week
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas broke out of the mini reverse head and shoulders to power through the daily Tenkan (orange) and flattening Kijun above. NG was stopped by the 50dma as it retested the 2017-18 low and -5/8 Murrey Math 3/8 recalc. With record low futures longs we were wary as at some point pressure gives way.
Natural Gas rallied off the lows back to the 2017-18 lowing to retest the Tenkan upside resistance at week’s end. After Price caught up to Chikou stopped the fall last week the balance fed the coil higher.
Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure May 10, 2019
Nymex Nattygas atm vol May 9, 2019
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For July 9, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -668 longs -16, 568 shorts +15,900 net change
- 33% net long (Prior Weeks 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk