The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +123 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed are in the hot/cold sweet spot for users. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +123 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures are in the hot/cold sweet spot for users. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/25/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time:Thursday May 2 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +123 Bcf Prior +92 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +119 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +108 to +129Bcf
- EIA swap: +119 +120 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report +92 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1247 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 1304
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1661
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +
- DJ Survey +
- Reuters Survey +
- Platts Survey +
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup +
- Macquarie +
- TFS +
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Bespoke +
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape +
- WoodMac +
- Kidduff Report +
- Shura Li – Pira +
- Robry825 +
- NG Junkie
- Norse +86
- Andrea Paltry +
- Point Logic +
- The Pit Boss +
- Jacob Meisel +
- Schneider Electric +
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
- Trade Mechanics +
- Andy Wiessman +
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model + Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+ Bcf
“ Spring has arrived abruptly for much of the East and Midwest, where early April balances are running much looser than usual. US temperatures warmed up 7 degrees week over week, reducing total demand by 8.5 Bcf/d, mostly in residential-commercial. Production, which has increased for the previous three storage weeks in a row, lost a bit of its momentum this week, dropping 0.5 Bcf/d. The majority of production declines came from the Southeast cell region, which contributed 3 Bcf less week over week, with a smaller drop of 1 Bcf from the Northeast. Regardless of how production may underperform, any potential tightness is offset by heating load plummeting in the past two weeks. Modeled estimates for total US demand are at 72.8 Bcf/d, which is about 62 percent of the late-season peak in early April, when demand averaged 116.7 Bcf/d.”- Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics
Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.
Natural Gas Production Watch
US Feb natgas dry production was 89.18 Bcf/day. That is +9.83 YoY. +0.58 Bcf/day MoM.
Natgas production from Permian region. EIA projects 14.1 for April.
Natgas production from Appalachia region. EIA projects 31.5 for April.
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities avg Bcf/day/month.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas closed back over the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after failing to run getting just over the tenkan but again no momentum. Above ijun, ma and 50 dma.
Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced but as daily also showed a lack of impulse both ways. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For Apr 23, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -3,856 longs +28,570 shorts -32,426 net change
- 56% net long (from last week 62%, 70% 2 weeks’s prior net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk