EIA Reports +89 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Build

The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +89Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift under 2.80 again.  Shoulder month is upon us with heat predictions starting to swirl and builds ahead.

The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +89 Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift under 2.80 again. Shoulder month is upon us with heat predictions starting to swirl and builds ahead.

us natgasl locations

An injection followed 9 weeks of draws which has seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cooling season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 5/3/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday May 10 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual + 89 Bcf  Prior  +62 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +92 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +82 to +104 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +94 to +94 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +62 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders

NG COT 4 30 18

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +89 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +94 Bcf

May 4 inventories are forecast to stand at 1,437 Bcf, shrinking the deficit to last year to 857 Bcf. We currently expect a record low of 3.4 Tcf for October inventories, but the lack of a response from Henry Hub seems to suggest that the huge underlying production growth has shifted what is considered a comfortable level of gas to carry the US through winter. A 94 Bcf injection would result in a balancing item of 10 Bcf for the week. Bentek also noted that the South Central region warmed over 8 degrees week-on-week and as a result saw the largest jump in sample activity.  7.8 Bcf of the week-on-week change came from the salt domes alone, with a smaller 2.4 Bcf coming from the depleted fields – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +90
  • DJ Survey +91
  • Reuters Survey +91
  • Platts Survey +92

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +89
  • Eclipse +
  • Macquarie +98
  • Raymond James +85
  • TFS +90

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +92
  • Gabe Harris +
  • Genscape +98
  • Kidduff Report +90
  • Shura Li – Pira +91
  • Peter Marrin – SNL +91
  • Norse +93
  • Andrea Paltry +95
  • Point Logic +95
  • Robry825 +104
  • Schneider Electric +95
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +90
  • Trade Mechanics +82
  • Andy Wiessman +87

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

 

   

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory for week 18 of 2018

 

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

 

 

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,343 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2246
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1877

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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