Into The Vortex – EIA Reports +25 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage

The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +25 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.

The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +25 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold lingered. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.

us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/4/19

  • Via
  • Release TimeThursday April 11 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  +25 Bcf Prior +23 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +33 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +17 to +39 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +34-+35@ CT 15.13

C=Reclassification Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of 1 Bcf in the Pacific region and 2 Bcf in the South Central Salt region for the week ending April 5, 2019. The implied flow for the week is an increase of 29 Bcf to working gas stocks. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on “implied flow.”)

Last Week’s Report +23 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1130 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1358
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1635

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch

EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey +31
  • DJ Survey +28
  • Reuters Survey +29
  • Platts Survey +33

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +17
  • Macquarie +33
  • TFS +36


  • AgWxMan –
  • Bespoke +
  • Shane Bolling –
  • Genscape +37
  • WoodMac +39
  • Kidduff Report +39
  • CJS Analytics –
  • Shura Li – Pira +36
  • Robry825 +33
  • 125WMARION –
  • NG Junkie –
  • Norse +38
  • Andrea Paltry +36
  • Point Logic +34
  • The Pit Boss +33
  • Jacob Meisel +36
  • Schneider Electric +33
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +31
  • Trade Mechanics +34
  • Andy Wiessman +33

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to – some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +44 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+29 Bcf

“ “With heating demand on its last leg, US demand lost an estimated 18 Bcf week over week, as balances begin to loosen, and injection season ramps up. Supplies were also given a small boost from Northeast production, which picked up 0.5 Bcf/d.”- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999


via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly


 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.

Natural Gas Production Watch

The disaster continues to unfold in the Permian via @BrynneKKelly

Natgas production from Permian region in Feb, 13.6 Bcf/day, was +0.2 Bcf/d vs Jan. EIA projects 14.1 for April.

Natgas production from Appalachia region sets new high in Feb of 30.8 Bcf/day. EIA projects 31.5 for April.

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT  Earlier there was a new high for US NG for LNG.Natgas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi combined for Mar 19 was 5.58 Bc 

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas after holding the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT Topside has got the breakdown and 50 dma – so back we come

MW NG D 4 5 19

Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low

MW NG W 4 5 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Mar 26, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change -16, 044 longs +2703 shorts -18747 net change 
  • 73% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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