The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +23 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +24 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold lingered. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 3/28/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday April 4 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 23 Bcf Prior-36 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +14 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -2 to +27 Bcf
- EIA swap: +18 to +19 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -36 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1107 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 1392
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1658
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +8
- DJ Survey +9
- Reuters Survey +4
- Platts Survey =11
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup -2
- Macquarie +15
- TFS +10
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Bespoke +15Bcf
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape +16
- WoodMac +16
- Kidduff Report +6
- CJS Analytics –
- Shura Li – Pira +13
- Robry825 +13
- 125WMARION –
- NG Junkie –
- Norse +15
- Andrea Paltry +15
- Point Logic +14
- The Pit Boss +12
- RBN Energy –
- Schneider Electric –
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +27
- Trade Mechanics +9
- Andy Wiessman +17
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: +14 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: +9 Bcf
“While the Northeast is holding on to the last bit of Winter, warmer temperatures in the remaining regions have significantly reduced heating demand and sample withdrawals as a result.”- Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics
Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.
Natural Gas Production Watch
The disaster continues to unfold in the Permian via @BrynneKKelly
Natgas production from Permian region in Feb, 13.6 Bcf/day, was +0.2 Bcf/d vs Jan. EIA projects 14.1 for April.
Natgas production from Appalachia region sets new high in Feb of 30.8 Bcf/day. EIA projects 31.5 for April.
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
ALERT Earlier there was a new high for US NG for LNG.Natgas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi combined for Mar 19 was 5.58 Bc
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas after holding the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT Topside has got the breakdown and 50 dma – so back we come
Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For Mar 26, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -13,351 longs -113 shorts -13,238 net change
- 75% net long
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk