Into The Vortex – EIA Reports Draw of -204 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage

The EIA reported a draw of -204 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.

The EIA reported a draw of -204 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold lingered. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. 

us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 3/7/19

  • Via
  • Release Time: Thursday March 714 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -204  Bcf  Prior  -149 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -210 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -201 to – 220 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -205 to – 208 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -149 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1390 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1633
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1854

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch

EIA Storage Report


US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey -209
  • DJ Survey -205
  • Reuters Survey -208
  • Platts Survey -208

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -219
  • Macquarie -206
  • Raymond James –
  • TFS -210


  • AgWxMan –
  • Jacob Meisel -209
  • Shane Bolling –
  • Genscape -209
  • WoodMac -201
  • Kidduff Report -206
  • CJS Analytics –
  • Shura Li – Pira -211
  • Robry825 -206
  • 125WMARION –
  • NG Junkie –
  • Norse -205
  • Andrea Paltry -216
  • Point Logic -210
  • RonH – 
  • RBN Energy –
  • Schneider Electric -213
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -220
  • Trade Mechanics -216
  • Andy Wiessman – 206

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to – some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -210  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -220  Bcf

“”- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999



via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

Week 16 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1539 bcf remaining, 3-week withdrawals are estimated at -454 bcf. 


Natural Gas Production  Watch 


Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here


Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999


Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas after holding the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT Topside has got the breakdown and 50 dma

MW NG D 3 8 19

Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low

 MW NG W 3 8 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • Delayed  due to Government Shutdown – for Feb 26, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change +4,318 longs  +22,318 shorts -18, 000 net change 
  • 69% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 


Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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