The EIA reported a draw of – 166 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, less than expected as temperatures continued to rise from the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
The EIA reported a draw of – 166 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, less than expected as temperatures continued to rise from the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.
Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 2/21/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday February 28 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual -166 Bcf Prior -177 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast -172 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -161 to – 179 Bcf
- EIA swap: -174 to – 175 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -177 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1705 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 1778
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,067
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -172
- DJ Survey -170
- Reuters Survey -171
- Platts Survey -171
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup -173
- Macquarie -172
- Raymond James –
- TFS -171
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Jacob Meisel -174
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape -169
- WoodMac -173
- Kidduff Report -179
- CJS Analytics –
- Shura Li – Pira -175
- Robry825 -161
- 125WMARION –
- NG Junkie –
- Norse -172
- Andrea Paltry -176
- Point Logic -169
- RonH –
- RBN Energy –
- Schneider Electric -175
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville -171
- Trade Mechanics -175
- Andy Wiessman – 170
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: – 180 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: – 172 Bcf
“Temperatures cooled down across every region, led by a 12-degree drop in the south-central. As a result, modeled estimates for residential and commercial demand added 48 Bcf of demand week over week, with additional tightness from 22-Bcf gains in power burn. Production out of Texas declined from 21.29 to 20.70 Bcf/d week over week, which was offset by gains in production from the Northeast and Southeast cell regions. Regionally, most of the tightness this week was split between the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest, where the return of colder weather spiked heating-demand. “- Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- Delayed due to Government Shutdown – for Feb 5, 2019.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -19,387 longs +751 shorts -20138 net change
- 84% net long
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk