Last week we saw the biggest draw of the season as cold weather continued to envelop the U.S. with the Polar Vortex breaking records. This week the reported a draw of – 78 Bcf in natural gas storage.
Last week we saw the biggest draw of the season as cold weather continued to envelop the U.S. with the Polar Vortex breaking records. The EIA reported a draw of – 78 Bcf in natural gas storage this week.
Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 2/7/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday February 14 2019 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 78 Bcf Prior -237 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast -83 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -72 to – 102 Bcf
- EIA swap: -82 to – 83 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -237 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1882 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 1912
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,215
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -81
- DJ Survey -79
- Reuters Survey -85
- Platts Survey -78
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup -81
- Macquarie -84
- Raymond James –
- TFS -78
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Jacob Meisel -82
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape -85
- WoodMac -82
- Kidduff Report -77
- CJS Analytics –
- Shura Li – Pira -80
- Robry825 -86
- 125WMARION –
- NG Junkie –
- Norse –
- Andrea Paltry –
- Point Logic -84
- RonH –
- RBN Energy –
- Schneider Electric -106
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville -81
- Trade Mechanics -81
- Andy Wiessman – 83
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: -72 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: -73 Bcf
“Temperatures increased double-digits in every cell region except for Mountain and Pacific week over week, drastically reducing heating load. Modeled estimates for residential and commercial demand dropped from 60.7 to 41.3 Bcf/d, accounting for 135 Bcf of the change relative to last week’s big draw, with additional bearishness from industrial and powerburn, which lost a combined 48 Bcf of demand.”- Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- Delayed due to Government Shutdown – for Jan 8, 2018.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change -12,641 longs -6431 shorts -6210 net change
- 81% net long
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk