Cold weather continues to envelop the U.S. with the Polar Vortex breaking records Last week the EIA reported a draw of – 173 Bcf in natural gas storage .Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
Cold weather continues to envelop the U.S. Last week the EIA reported a draw of – 173 Bcf in natural gas storage with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/24/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday January 31 2018 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 173 Bcf Prior -163 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast -192 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -182 to – 202 Bcf
- EIA swap: -184 to – 185 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -161 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 2,533 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 2610
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2860
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -195
- DJ Survey -194
- Reuters Survey -189
- Platts Survey -197
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup -182
- Macquarie -185
- Raymond James –
- TFS -195
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Jacob Meisel -189
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape -186
- Gabe Harris –
- Kidduff Report -202
- CJS Analytics –
- Shura Li – Pira -191
- Robry825 -184
- 125WMARION –
- NG Junkie –
- Norse -202
- Andrea Paltry -191
- Point Logic –
- RonH –
- RBN Energy –
- Schneider Electric –
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville –
- Trade Mechanics -201
- Andy Wiessman – 188
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: -201 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: -202 Bcf
“Modeled estimates for US residential and commercial demand added 33 Bcf week over week, with 30 Bcf coming from the midcontinent market alone. While the majority of the tightness was due to the added heating demand, the Northeast also saw some of the largest week-over-week production drops since last January, likely indicating some effect due to freeze-offs. The balancing item for the week is forecast to measure -15 Bcf, in line with the highly negative balancing items seen over the previous two weeks, since the onset of colder weather “- Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Import Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
With the Government Shutdown CFTC is not releasing COT
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk